Opinion Poll

Opinion Poll Survey

Explore and capture public sentiment at the ground level before elections in four states of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan

Case Studies Details

The Challenge
Explore and capture public sentiment at the ground level before elections in states of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.

The Solution    
Pre-poll surveys conducted to predict the share of votes for each major party from the sampled constituencies. The surveys were then mapped based on the pattern of vote shares and final outcome of the previous election to estimate the number of seats for each party in the upcoming election. Considering the heterogeneity of the states, Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS) and Systematic Random Sampling (SRS) techniques were used to select the polling stations.

The Result    
Predicted Vasundhara Raje-led BJP to return to power in Rajasthan. Chhattisgarh polls predicted BJP winning 46 seats, while Congress bagging 42 seats. Madhya Pradesh opinion poll predicted BJP’s win in the state with a clear majority.