Opinion Poll

Opinion Poll Survey

Explore and capture public sentiment at the ground level before elections in four states of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan

Case Studies Details



Explore and capture public sentiment at the ground level before elections in four states of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan

Methodology

Pre-poll surveys conducted to predict the share of votes for each major party from the sampled constituencies. It was then mapped to the pattern of vote shares and final outcome of the previous election, to estimate the number of seats for each party in the current election. Considering the heterogeneity of the states, Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS) and Systematic Random Sampling (SRS) techniques were used to select the polling stations.

Outcome

Predicted 'Vasundhra Raje-led BJP to return to power in Rajasthan. 'Chhattisgarh polls predicted as BJP expected to bag 46 seats while Congress at 42 seats'. MP prediction was that 'BJP will get the clear majority to retain the power in the state.'